John Walsh and Larry Hinzman

00:01 So recording jumpstart your car say my name is John Walsh. My age is 69 today's date is March 12th, 2018. We are at the University of Alaska Fairbanks the iarc building and my relationship to Larry hinzman is that I work in one of the research institutes over which he is the vice Chancellor.

00:31 My name is Larry hinzman. I'm 62 years old. Today is March 12th, 2018. We're at the international Arctic Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks and John and I are called.

00:47 So John we've been working together for a long long time and you actually started working on climate change 00 probably in the 70s. Can you tell us what what first feature interest about the climate and climate change studies?

01:06 I actually started working on on Arctic sea ice back in the late 1960s with the Navy and that that actually peaked my interest in climate. There was there was a lot of work at the time going on in connection with sea ice Dynamics predicting C is for the the supply of the pipeline and that type of thing but there was not much interest in how sea ice might fit into the the bigger climate picture so that that was actually the so that the start of the interest and then several years later when I became a faculty member to Illinois branched out into Arctic climate and have been working in that general area ever since

01:47 So the the evolution of climate science has has changed a lot over the period of your career. And so you know, what have you seen with respect to A Change Is Not Just Not Just in changes in climate but changes with respect to how people are receptive to The Climate science for the most part climate climate and climate change for non-issues back in the 1960s and 1970s. People were generally concerned about the weather. They didn't think too much about climate one one series of events that that did generate some interest in in in the public at least in the lower 48 was a series of Fairly severe Winters back in the 1970s 1976 through 79 there were three or four winners in a row that we're snowy and cold essentially everywhere east of the Rockies Not Included the major population centers.

02:47 There is some concern at that time that we might actually be moving towards an ice age that that that concern seemed to wane over the next decade or so when the Winter's return to normal, but that was it in a sense a wake up call for people that there's more to the atmosphere and ocean system than just day today weather variations. So right now it seems like everybody has a understanding and understanding of what climate changes in the climate Dynamics.

03:22 Do you think in the sixties and seventies? It was the same was in a popular opinion really interested in it, or was it you know what largely ignorant sir or lack of attention attention and probably aren't on both sides of the coin on the the scientific community's side and on the public side and of those two are not independent when they're very few climate scientists there there's very of theirs and there's much less Outreach the public Hears A lot less about what's going on in climate just because there are fewer people doing research on the topic fewer people monitoring climate in the other hand the that with the lack of general interest by the public results in a year down play as a priority of of climate when it comes to this the funding agencies. So there is a that there's a connection between the two sectors there and I think back in the 60s and 70s. We were seeing some of the some of the

04:22 What what I'd call the that the downside of the climate interest cycle, so there really are multiple audiences that have various concerns about climate. There's the the general public there is the

04:38 How the agency program managers and there's the the political realm. How do you think or how would you describe the changes in those audiences over the years their up their perceptions and their level of Interest engagement.

04:52 I think that from The Sandlot the higher levels of the administration and from the the Congressional side there there was very little interest in climate in the 60s 70s and even in the 80s. It was just not one of the one of the topics that legislators were hearing from their constituents about they were no real big issues that we're driving action from either the the executive branch over the legislative branch. So I think that that that that is is changed a lot in the last 20 years 25 years, but then we were in this this this wall of Interest back in the back in the. I'd say up to the up through the 1990s.

05:38 And you know, so how would you describe it today? I think today we we we certainly seen a surge of Interest not nuts parallel the growth of the climate research Enterprise both in the the private than the in the in the seelie the academic sectors. I think that may have peaked a couple of years ago. And in terms of the the enthusiasm and support from the the higher political levels the administration in particular, I think we've seen a drop off in the last year or two which which goes with the administrative changed but I I see that is something that's temporary. They there still a basically an army of of climate researchers. They may be having harder times right now, but their voices are still being heard and they'll they'll be heard and they'll probably get through to the higher levels of of government sometime down the road.

06:37 So the interest in the concern about a changing climate has has waxed and waned over the last 50 years, you know, so what do you think what's driving those changes Dynamics from from year to year and decade to decade just of the of the interest in the in the in the general public in the political world. I think a large part of the Public's interest in climate change is the that the direct impacts that they experience from extreme events things like droughts floods hurricanes those types of things. They they catch the Public's interest and it hits your backyard you notice what's what's in the system physical system and to the extent that certain types of weather events are happening more often and with with greater severity people start to jump from the perception of whether to the perception of climate and the the the idea that climate may be changing catches hold.

07:34 And where do you think the public should be at this point with their their level of concerned?

07:39 Hi, I think they should be concerned. I think we're so we are seeing certainly fairly dramatic increases in these these high impact events the Noah the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tracks these billion-dollar disasters most of them occur in the lower 48 not too many in Alaska that those those events have really am. I really jumped up dramatically just in the last 10 or 15 years apart of that is due to the the increase and infrastructure and vulnerability, but part of it is due to an increase in the frequency of the actual events the atmospheric and ocean events that are that are occurring in in causing the damage and the the the other types of losses human lies and injuries.

08:27 New York same time we're still seeing decreases and support and no support for research and climate in and whether you know, how do you reconcile that?

08:38 I think we were we were seeing we were at least holding our own if not seeing increases up until a few years ago. I think it is unfortunate that the that the the peak seems to have occurred maybe a during the Obama Administration. And now now there is indeed less support that that's certainly doesn't doesn't fit with the the impacts that we're experiencing. So there is a mismatch here and one does have to question our priorities in terms of preparedness and mitigation when it comes to weather events that may be impacted by climate change. See you work on International scale South. So how is the

09:20 How's the rest of the world the level of concern with rest of the world?

09:26 Rest of the world is continuing on carrying the flag while the other us seems to be backing off taking a back seat. I think the the Paris agreement in the year that the situation with the u.s. Involvement really captures that situation pretty well. The rest of the world is is unanimous and in moving forward planning adaptation measures mitigation strategies. Where is the US is backing off and we are we are somewhat isolated in in that in going that way.

10:00 So can you explain the differences in the level of Interest? I mean, they're seeing the same evidence that we are in a why is there a what's the difference in the in the levels of concern?

10:12 I think that the levels of concern at least among the public or aren't probably not too far. Not not liking too far behind and in some of the other countries, I think the real problem is at the at the higher levels of the administration. I think the that they just have priorities that that make climate climate change a and secondary concern at this point and Money Talks money is part of the story. So I think that we need to bide our time until the until the tide changes. So let's split shift tracks a little bit and then you study climate Dynamics for 50 years. What in the Arctic in particular? So what do you think? How can you explain the role of the Artic and Global Climate Dynamics?

11:00 I think the light we we're not really exaggerating when we say the Artic is the the Bellwether when it comes to climate change what we we've seen we certainly seen some fairly striking changes see ice glaciers in Greenland ice sheet permafrost and those changes actually playback. They feed back into the the larger climate system and see ice and it's it's dark surface changes the heat budget of the Artic which in turn impacts the atmosphere in that impact on the atmosphere can spread to the the larger scale circulation so that there are impacts beyond the Artic want one of the the sayings in our field is that what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic and that I think that does to some some processes and and mechanisms that have a good sound physical basis.

11:56 And I think that is the the sea ice cover Retreats that that's really been the whole day the canary in the coal mine. So to speak we we really lost half of our sea ice cover in the warm season end this year's winter ice cover is setting all sorts of Records. Those things catch people's attention, even when they're they're outside the Artic so I think we will continue to have the story being told even though the support from the the the higher levels of our government may not be there.

12:30 So what do you think the the near-term implications are for the safe would say within the next 20 years for our societies?

12:42 I think our our society's awareness of what's happening with respect to climate is going to continue to be there. I'm not I'm not concerned that they climb it's going to go onto a back burner among the Public's concern. I do think we need to wait out the tide. So to speak with respect to the the support from the higher levels of the government, but I'm reasonably confident that the US will get back onto the back into the mainstream when it comes to do anticipating and planning with respect to climate.

13:15 Do you have any projections on what we should expect with response to a with with respect to environmental impacts are our ecosystem Dynamics within the near future.

13:29 I think the big threats to ecosystems have to do with moisture droughts and floods. So I think of the the the particular climate events that I'd be most concerned about. I think that we were already seeing impacts of drought in the in the lower 48 and that they will extend to other areas of the world perhaps even parts of the Arctic in the future and the extreme flooding that the opposite side of the coin the extreme flight events or certainly you wanted in high-profile. They been in the news a lot today. Those are events that are increasing in frequency. It's so those are the events that we have a high confidence about the trajectory of the they're going to become more intense and more frequent. Those are the ones that can impact more local ecosystems that they certainly impact infrastructure and people so I thought I'd keep my eye on the hydrologic cycle if I

14:29 If I were looking for impacts of changing climate and the interaction between climate and weather.

14:38 Sleep in a climate scientist essentially all of your professional life. So what do you think the big burning research questions on the horizon are

14:48 Take the big questions are how rapidly we are going to respond how how rapidly the the the climate system is going to respond to this push that we're giving it with the the increase in greenhouse gases. I think we all know the general direction that the changes are headed, but how rapidly they're they're going to occur is an open question. We we we we lost half the sea ice in the last 15 years or so you extrapolate that you could argue that the summer see I should be gone and just 15 years climate models on the other hand are so much slower and their trajectories of sea ice lost. So they they say it may take to the 2050s or 20 60s that makes pretty big difference in terms of what the arctix going to look like at least in the warm season and probably in the cold season as well and if there are indeed impacts on mid-latitudes which there seem to be their implications for how rapidly the the more popular

15:48 What areas of the world are going to feel what's happening in the Arctic?

15:52 So thinking back on the time when you were young climate scientists and you were first hypothesizing to The Climate may be changing may be driven by external factors that that we could measure and quantify you have the changes that you've seen how they have they met with your expectations or have the rates of change been beyond your expectations by expectations. In fact, what one particular event I can recall way back when I was supposed to talk back in the 1970s. I was working on a synthesis of Arctic temperature data from the Russian Ice stations just to see if there's any sign of an increase or decrease and the the record showed a cooling with a of an uptick in the mid-70s just for a few years and I remember taking that into a couple of Fairly senior climate scientists at ncar Marie Mitchell and will Kellogg and showed it to them. I didn't know what to make of it. I was just a young

16:52 Will stock can I wasn't aware of what climate change really was and I remember one of them said all the Arctic is finally turning around and I thought to myself how could they be? So sure that the artist should be turning around and they that turns out they were right they didn't anticipate that the the the overall for sitting should be warming the Artic and that that warming is really continued for the last 30 or 40 years, but at that time I was certainly skeptical about a change of the magnitude we seen and even a change in the direction that we've seen but I found it interesting that some of the senior scientist it have a drive in anticipation of what might be in store. Even though the younger scientists of the time probably did not

17:39 Have there been any surprises with respect to environment responses or are?

17:46 Ecological impacts that we didn't anticipate

17:50 I don't think we anticipated the speed of the sea ice loss. I keep coming back to see ice but I know that there were there some workshops back in the hole the 1990s and 2000s that did point to a a trajectory of sea ice which was towards the eventual loss but I don't think we anticipated how rapidly things would change from. Say the the mid-2000s decade to the present. And then that's a. Of just 10 or 15 years. When you lose half of your CIS volume. In fact, we've lost more than half of the volume when you lose that fraction or percentage of the volume in such a short time that that that's something that I don't think people really anticipated. I think the the rate of warming of the the ground and high latitudes is occurring at a faster rate than we might have thought. I think the conventional wisdom is that

18:50 Ground temperatures in permafrost areas will warm but the warm slowly but we're seeing up on the North Slope is is a rapid enough warming that we could actually get thawing of what has been called permafrost in just 30 or 40 years, which is the lifetime of a it's it's one generation of of human lives. So I'd I don't think we anticipated that type of change and I don't think we anticipated the changes in in the Greenland ice sheet. The ice sheet is losing mass at a really rapid rate one. That's not negligible is when you look at the the changes in sea level Global sea-level. I don't think we anticipated that 10 or 15 years ago. So these these changes that we're seeing or ones that are in what we would call the the right direction the direction we might have anticipated but the speed that they're occurring is is somewhat surprising.

19:51 Thought I'd be interested in your perspective on that too. Since you've been in the field for nearly as long do you see any major and he surprises that stand out things you might not have expected to see in your research career when you start it back in the day the 1980s will frankly what astounds me completely is the level of denial by some portions of our population and some people in the political realm, I mean the evidence of a of a warming climate in ecosystem impacts. So this is overwhelming. It's incredibly

20:35 Pedal not evidence out there that the climate is indeed changes if there are drastic consequences of those changes and the level of denial. It just amazes me continues to amaze me a worrying that there are

20:50 There are very important impacts of this sea as you mentioned the droughts in the floods are going to be us a serious consequence. But also the degradation of permafrost is is in the Arctic is going to be really drastic impact upon our our Northern societies. We have a huge amount of our infrastructure is built upon this I search for frosting when the ice melts in the permafrost thaws in the soils the ice rich soil start to subside in the road. We're going to have a drastic impact to our Northern infrastructure. I also worry about the sustaining agriculture in the Midwest and and the we have huge population centers that demand a huge amount of water and when the hydrologic Dynamics change with no longer fried Waters these megacities and there will be

21:43 Important demographic impacts because of that

21:47 So did you think the denial is driven largely by Financial considerations? The words of certain industries are certain people think that climate change is going to cost the money down the road for for mitigation measures. Did you think that's the reason for the denial or is there there's something something deeper at work? I think that the financial considerations are a big part of it too. If if resources going to mitigating a changing climate than those resources have to be pulled away from some other some other need and some of the economic need and so they're there definitely is critically are competing interest for the resources available. But I also think that people are you know, really prefer to have

22:34 Static environment of static stable environment and I think a lot of people just would prefer to to pretend there are no changes and pretend to ignore the situation and hope it goes away and I don't think that it is just not into it in in people's nature to accept the fact that there are

22:55 Rapid changes that are ongoing that are essentially are occurring on on human scales at a relatively slow pace people have evolved over the Millennium to to respond to the snake in the grass and not to the slow press into the the slow changes that we see with respect to two climate Dynamics or are changes that occur on a semi geologic time frames.

23:20 I think part of the problem to is that climate is is Interlink with weather and that introduces these ups and downs into the system. So if I think if climate change for a straight line with a Relentless straight line change people would it acknowledge it more readily but when their ups and downs along the way they can fall back on this argument that I'll climb it's always changing or it's it's it's just whether that we're experiencing. So there's a set of an easy way out if you want to if you want to be a denier when it comes to climate, where is it there there may not be an easy way out if there were more Relentless trajectory. How do you answer people when they say where the climate is always changing and always has changed.

24:07 I just point out that what we're experiencing now is outside of the range of a lot of the changes that we've experienced. If you look at a record of temperature is going back thousands of years. There are indeed ups and downs along the way but we're now outside the range of those temperatures of the past couple thousand years that you could argue that well. It's just a coincidence some. Has to stand out is the warmest of a 2000 year record. But when something happens in the most recent. And that most recent. Happens to be one where the climate system is is experiencing the the increasing greenhouse gases and the the changes very consistent with what the greenhouse gases should be causing then then then the weight of the evidence currently shifts to the to the the store the meaningful side when it comes to to how to how to take the change on top of that. We can explain the climate in MX it occur.

25:07 For the last five hundred thousand or million years just based on variations. And in the solar radiation that is impacting the earth based upon the blank of cycles and you know considering that right now we should actually we should actually be entering it colder. In Ice Age because the solar radiation is is diminishing. We've been receiving decreased solar radiation for last nine thousand years. So why are we where we were mean? If not for some other driver has come up with if you actually look at the numbers calculate how much the solar radiation should be changing or is changing because of the orbital Cycles. It turns out to be a few tenths of a watt per square meter in the in the radiation units on the other hand. If you calculate what greenhouse gases have done to the atmosphere over the last hundred years or so, it's more than 10 times as much in terms of it radiative forcing or change and radiation.

26:07 The opposite direction so we have the greenhouse gas change of several watts per square meters on the positive side a solar influence of several tenths of a lot per square meter on the opposite side to cooling side. One one is an order of magnitude factor of 10 greater than the other so it's hard to argue that we should be dominated by the that the solar solar forcing at this point. You talked a little bit about the the perspectives of the international community's can you further and talked about the the value of international collaborations in the the impacts of such Publications is the ipcc and

26:53 Oh, yeah, there there's been a real Resurgence of a surge of interest in climate and end in climate research and funding for it around the world over the last couple of decades. I think the the Europeans led the way back in the 80s and 90s in the last 10 or 20 years. I think the Asians have really ramped up the effort and climate change term refers to countries like China and Korea. Japan has been a player for longer than that, but the the support for climate research has ramped up at a much more rapid pace and these other countries than it has in the US which means that we're now but we're we're now players in the big picture, but we're certainly not the dominant players that we might have been fifty years ago. So I think now we do need to rely a lot on what happens what comes out of the research from other countries, but they're doing that means it when it comes time to look at the big picture to do with an assessed.

27:53 The climate change and size up just where we are and where we're headed. The effort has to be an international collaboration. There's really no getting around that and the ipcc has been one group that has led the way in terms of assessing climate-change. They they do their assessments every five or six years for the Arctic. We have the Arctic monitoring and Assessment program. What does a similar thing but it's more focused on the Arctic they came up with the Arctic climate impact assessment back in 2005, which is it in some ways. They serve a landmark when it comes to pointing out the changes that are going on in the Arctic and changes that we should anticipate. So I think we really do need to partner with these these other major players in climate research and certainly in the Arctic case Canada Russia in the European. The Scandinavian countries are the real leaders there and that that's been happening for a lie effectively even with the

28:53 Set the downturn and support for climate research in the u.s. In the last year or two. This International collaboration is continuing and I'm confident the science Community will continue to play its role and in participate even though there may not be the blessings from above it is there might as there was in the last the last few administration's it is interesting in that although there are strong competitions and rivalries and even receive threats among various countries on the political and economic scales. There's incredible.

29:30 Collaborative Spirit of cooperation among researchers throughout the world in in climate science. And also how do we utilize that to us to further Advance efforts into though the intergovernmental panel on climate change and and other research efforts?

29:52 Well, what one point about the international collaboration is that it's it's somewhat non-competitive and they may be competing with ideas, but you're not competing for funding for your might be within your own country. So I think that I think that the if there's an impetus there to to pursue International collaboration more than what we might otherwise, especially when the the intellectual expertise is out there among the other countries and I think the the fact that the international research Community assessment Community can speak with pretty much one voice mean are there are different Slants on on certain details, but when it comes to the main messages, you'll find a pretty good agreement among the international science community and I think that adds weight to the to the the the outcome of the message that the the climate Community is delivering and that's that's a message that

30:52 It was built upon the research that was performed internationally.

30:57 Can you talk about one more thing? And that's

31:00 So as far as climate is it has been warming around the globe for many decades now, but we're seeing so many impacts in the Arctic as opposed to the the more temperate regions. So white why are we seeing so many so many visual sets of evidence of the warm climate in the Arctic. The Arctic is the more vulnerable part of the climate system. You have the that the cia's the snow cover even the ice sheets which can amplify or magnify some of the changes that might be happening. Otherwise other words. If you get warm air coming into the Arctic from lower latitudes, you would have warmed in the past. You have had a warm episode in the Artic but when that warm air passes over Open Water to reach the North Pole, which is almost is doing these days it is going to reach the North Pole even warmer than it would have been and that's because

32:00 The changes that have happened it's in in in the Artic itself. So the I think the Artic is an amplifier that they even have a name for that that affect which is Arctic amplification and that that carries over into elements of climate and weather other than temperature carries over into precipitation you opening up more water to provide more moisture. You're releasing more water into the ocean which can in turn affect what happens in the upper ocean affecting the ecosystems and and the ice cover itself. So I look at the yard at gizeh is a part of the system where the Leverage is greater than it is in middle latitudes. So in the Arctic were experiencing buying permafrost integrating glaciers and Coastal erosion of changing vegetation. So what

32:52 What what impacts can they expect in the lower 48?

32:57 I think that the two big ones that I be concerned about are changes in sea level which can be made made more rapid and worse by what happens in the Arctic, especially with Greenland. And do you have the smaller glaciers and the impacts of the Arctic on mid-latitude weather systems what we seen in the last just this past winter seems to be an example of the artist eyes to mid-latitudes. The climate people are are now pointing to actual mechanisms that can link the warmer Arctic with winter weather like we've experienced in in the US and in Europe just over the last few weeks. And these these mechanisms can in some way be that the Smoking Gun. They take the connection Beyond a is statistical relationship into one that makes good sense physically and dynamically, so we're we're essentially completing the story of the link and to the extent that the Arctic and Tin used to change those

33:57 Linkages, the mid-latitudes are are going to continue and then perhaps become stronger in the future. See you study climate Dynamics all of your professional life, you know those looking back has it been a fulfilling career and would you do it over again? If you could into the climate research area at the optimum time, it's almost like being a surfer and catching the way you can we eat. We got on the wave at the right time and I think the real question is how far this way is going to go but I wouldn't hesitate to make the same career decision again. I'd be curious about your your reaction to you. You've had just about as much time in the field and more on the terrestrial side than the the atmosphere Oceanside, but I think the same question could be raised here would you

34:53 Would you do it again or would you do it differently?

34:57 I would do it again. But as far as you don't find it fulfilling and I find it frustrating in that this is such an important problem. This is probably one of the biggest problems facing society today. And and it's a it's a huge threat on the horizon and I'm just a little dismayed that that the administration the United States and end part of our population there not more concerned about this this this severe severe threat on the horizon. We really do need to to respond to address it before the before it overtakes us the Next Generation or two. It's really got the higher stake. We're we're pulling the trigger so to speak but their that they're going to be the ones who are really impacted down the road. I'm heavy interesting analogy. I read somewhere. Was it similar to a case where there's an asteroid headed to Earth and you can either deflect it now for 10

35:57 Billion dollars or you can wait fifty years and pay ten times as much to deflect it. The real question is do you invent you put in the investment now or do you leave at the future generations and I'm afraid we're we're taking the latter option here, which is to let the Next Generation worry about it, even though the price they have to pay maybe higher but you know, I'm joking. I feel blessed to have work of some incredibly brilliant scientist. But the the thing to give me the the most optimism is to see the the level of innovation and energy and enthusiasm and capability and then the next generation of scientists. Do you know my students said that I've worked with over the years have been incredibly brilliant. I'm optimistic that there is a solution on the horizon special when I deal with stuff when I do up in this generation of scientists, I think we actually I think we're really in the world in good hands.

36:55 And what what impresses me about the younger scientists to is that there are more more inclined to look biondi the Ivory Tower. They're they're not as stovepipe. This is we were at least an hour early years there their they're looking at the big picture of Earth climate and and how it relates to society and how they can can effectively interventor interact with policymakers much more so than we did when we started our careers and that. That's an encouraging sign for 4 that the message is getting through to a to those who can do something about it in the political Arena. We did good work, but there's still a lot of good work that needs to be done, right?

37:35 I have a question that last couple minutes. Can you talk about rain in the winter?

37:50 Yeah that the rain in the winter, which should be freezing rain or rain on snow it it's a good example of a high-impact manifestation of of of climate change. The climate models certainly indicate that rain on top of snow that the freezing rain will become more common in the future. We we've had some major freezing rain events in high-latitude just in the last few years at their what's missing at this point is a good distillation of information from all around the the Northern Hemisphere that would include Eurasian side the North American side and even mid-latitude so we could see if there's a systematic progression of winter rains farther north there. There are more people working on this topic now than there were just two or three years ago. So I think what you what you find it too with the the winter rain is is an emerging research topic. We're going to hear more about it and

38:50 If there are continue to be some of these these high impact events, I think that the the public will demand more information on where we're headed with respect to freezing rain and I'll add that the the consequences of been a dramatic in that Northern Arctic ecosystems were not evolved to handle.

39:11 Rain on snow or midwinter rain events in that. They've been incredibly.

39:16 Catastrophic for muskox herds have been really bad for a caribou there. They're very very difficult hard for are the dominant vegetation types that are up here. If so, it's an unusual meter logic events that they were going to have to adapt to ended up this the sad thing is that

39:39 Our our floranirvana can't adapt on the scales of the changes that we're seeing. And so there is a is going to be severe consequences to these changes.

39:50 Yeah, that that's it's a good example of how climate change impacts can occur in these very episodic events, which is one thing that makes it tricky to type of climate change to impacts in. There may be one freezing rain event that has a major impact on an ecosystem over an area of several hundred miles on a side that type of event may not happen again for 5 or 10 years in that. The answer the awareness of freezing rain me to fade from from many people's front burner so to speak so I think it's that that that type of event highlights the challenges we face in relating climate change to impacts.

40:34 My last question is do you remember that rain in and around Thanksgiving day, maybe seven years ago, but somehow years ago. Do you remember that when the buses are off the road do you have when you remember how it felt to do that day? Could you even make it to your car if that was a day when we had to walk into work?

40:58 Night, I do remember it. Well, I need it impacted a lot of people because the airplanes in and out of Fairbanks had trouble getting in and out and that that's a major travel time and when people experience that type of impact they remember the event but that. That's why it's a great example of how large freezing rain event strikes a populated area where a lot of people are impacted goes down a lot of memories. Where is if it affects an area that's that's unpopulated there. There may be an ecosystem impact that just does not get the attention. He does not get etched into people's Memories the way it would have if it if it affects their own backyards that brings out to know highlights the importance of adaptation in that Chicago gets ran on snow all the time, you know, they but they are prepared for it. They are it's not a surprise to them but in the Arctic and sub-arctic, we don't get rained on snow events. And so we haven't our society has not evolved.

41:58 Adapted to those those types of events in so it can be catastrophic for us in those those terrible rain on snow events. We've had communities that have been without electricity for four days and weeks on end and if it has a big impact and we need to anticipate what these changes are going to be in and construct a more resilient infrastructure to to survive these impacts. And then we we also need to remember to that colder climates are more vulnerable to these these events when they happen because when we get a freezing rain event around here at the ice hangs around for a while we get an event in November this probably still going to be some of that ice on the trees and the side of the road in February or March or is down in Chicago. It'll melt off in the next week or so. So be the impacts there are much more short life more temporary than what we get around here. So few more of these events that that change the character of a winter will certainly you get p

42:58 Close attention and raise their level of awareness.